Germany's Nations League path requires two wins but may not be enough

Germany sits third with five points and needs two wins in November, but even eleven points may not secure a Nations League quarter-final spot due to complex tiebreakers.

Germany's path to the Nations League quarter-finals remains uncertain even if they win their two remaining matches in November. The national team, managed by Jürgen Klopp, sits third in Group A3 with five points after a 0-0 draw in Thessaloniki, trailing both the Netherlands and Greece who have eight points each.

The remaining fixtures see Germany travel to face Serbia on 13 November before hosting the Netherlands in Berlin on 16 November. Two victories would take the side to eleven points, but that may still not be enough. If Germany, the Netherlands, and Greece all finish on eleven points, complex tiebreakers come into play. In the head-to-head mini-table between those three teams, each would have five points. Having lost 0-1 in Athens and drawn the return, Germany loses that specific tiebreaker to Greece.

Complex Three-Way Tie Scenario

The first deciding factor is the head-to-head record among the tied teams. If all criteria there are equal, the overall group goal difference would be used. For Germany, this could mean needing to beat the Netherlands by two or more goals to come out on top in a three-way tie. The team's recent form of just one win in their last five matches (DWLDD) provides cause for caution. The most recent of those was the 0-0 draw in Greece on 4 October.

Head coach Jürgen Klopp indicated his focus hadn't yet shifted to the November games after the match in Thessaloniki. "I haven't thought about the games in November for a single second yet," said the 59-year-old. The squad must now use the international break to find the consistency required for the decisive fixtures.

Should Germany finish third, there is still something at stake. The two highest-ranked third-place teams in League A qualify directly for the Euro 2028 qualifying playoffs starting in March. The two lowest-ranked third-place teams, however, enter relegation playoffs against a runner-up from League B. The current group standings and further statistics are available in our standings. The next step is the away match in Serbia on 13 November, where the team, led by top scorer Deniz Undav (3 goals in 4 appearances), needs a significant improvement.

Read the full report at T-Online